برنامه‌ریزی تولید بهینه برق در ایران با هدف دستیابی به اهداف سند برنامه هفتم توسعه و قانون جهش تولید دانش‌بنیان

نوع مقاله : کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار پژوهشگاه ملی اقیانوس شناسی و علوم جوی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

10.30473/jier.2026.75617.1511

چکیده

مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی امکان تحقق اهداف این سند برنامه و همچنین قانون جهش تولید دانش‌بنیان به برنامه‌ریزی بخش نیروگاهی کشور با استفاده از مدل MESSAGE پرداخته است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که با تحقق اهداف سند و قانون جهش تولید، کل ظرفیت نصب شده در سال انتهایی مطالعه، معادل 112،050 مگاوات می‌باشد که از این میزان سهم تکنولوژی‌های تجدیدپذیر بیش از 19 هزار مگاوات است. به عبارتی سهم انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در سبد عرضه برق کشور از 5/0 درصد در سال پایه به بیش از 17 درصد در سال پایانی می‌رسد. یافته‌های حاصل از مدل پیرامون سبد بهینه تولید برق ایران در افق سند برنامه هفتم توسعه نشان می‌دهد کل تولید برق ایران در بازه زمانی 2024، 2026 و 2028 به ترتیب معادل 495 تراوات ساعت، 498 تراوات ساعت و 543 تراوات ساعت خواهد بود؛ که از این میزان سهم انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در سبد عرضه برق کشور 18 درصد می‌باشد. دیگر یافته‌های حاصل از مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که سهم تکنولوژی‌های فسیلی از 89 درصد در سال 2024، به حدود 76 درصد در سال 2028 رسیده است. همچنین نتایج این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که مصرف سوخت‌های فسیلی در بخش نیروگاهی ایران به ترتیب در سال‌های 2024، 2026 و 2028 معادل 3،744 پتا ژول، 3،441 و 3،472 پتا ژول می‌باشد. از طرفی مطابق همین روند مصرف میزان انتشار کربن نیز در بازه زمانی مذکور به ترتیب معادل 210، 193 و 195 گرم کربن به ازای یک پتا ژول مصرف سوخت فسیلی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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