نوع مقاله : بنیادی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار اقتصاد بین الملل، گروه مدیریت، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مبارکه ، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی مالی، گروه مدیریت، واحد دهاقان ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، دهاقان، ایران.
3 استادیار ،گروه مدیریت، واحد دهاقان ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، دهاقان، ایران.
10.30473/jier.2025.73401.1484
چکیده
با توجه به سقوط بزرگ تجارت پس از بحران مالی 2008-2009، توجه به نقش ریسک مالی کشوری برای صادرات افزایش یافته است. ریسک مالی کشوری مورد نظر این مطالعه معیاری برای سنجش توانایی یک کشور در انجام تعهدات مالی در سطح بین‌المللی است. مسئله اصلی این مقاله، تعیین میزان تأثیرپذیری صادرات صنعتی ایران از ریسک مالی کشوری و شناسایی مؤلفه‌های تعیین‌کننده آن در مقایسه با سایر عوامل سنتی مؤثر بر صادرات است. بدین ترتیب از داده‌های تابلویی برای دوره 2002 تا 2022 و در چارچوب مدل جاذبه و به روش حداکثر درستنمایی شبه پواسن (PPML) استفاده شده است. تحلیل اقتصادسنجی نقش ریسک مالی کشوری ایران در رشد عرضه صادرات صنعتی را تأیید نمی‌کند. لیکن شرایط ریسک مالی کشوری مقاصد صادراتی به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل مؤثر در رشد صادرات صنعتی ایران مورد تأیید آماری قرار می‌گیرد. نکته قابل‌توجه این است که شرایط ریسک مالی کشوری مقاصد صادراتی در مقایسه با سایر عوامل کلاسیک مدل جاذبه نظیر نرخ ارز حقیقی، مرز مشترک و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه مقاصد صادراتی دارای بیشترین تأثیر بر صادرات صنعتی ایران است. در میان 5 مؤلفه تعیین‌کننده ریسک مالی کشوری مقاصد صادراتی، کاهش ریسک حساب‌جاری، بدهی خدمات، ریسک بدهی خارجی و ریسک نقدینگی بین‌المللی باعث افزایش تقاضا برای صادرات صنعتی ایران می‌شود. توصیه می‌شود شرکت‌های صادراتی و نهادهای توسعه‌ای در انتخاب و شناسایی بازارهای هدف معیار ریسک مالی کشوری را مدنظر قرار دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
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