با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن اقتصاد دفاع ایران و انجمن اقتصاد انرژی ایران

نوع مقاله : کاربردی

نویسندگان

پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی بانک مرکزی

10.30473/jier.2025.72608.1469

چکیده

در دهه 1390 تا 1399 اقتصاد ایران بدلیل تحریمهای اقتصادی، مدیریت ناکارآمد، بهره وری پایین و سیاستهای نامناسب اقتصادی بطور متوسط با نرخ رشد اقتصادی نزدیک به صفر مواجه بوده است. در این راستا سیاستگذاران پولی کشور تلاش کردند تا با استفاده از ابزار پرداخت تسهیلات از تولید حمایت کرده و سبب رشد ارزش افزوده کشور شوند. مسئله اصلی تحقیق حاضر این است که آیا پرداخت این تسهیلات توسط صنعت بانکداری باعث افزایش ارزش افزوده استانهای کشور شده است؟ از آنجایی که تسهیلات پرداختی در دو قالب عقود مبادله ای (مرابحه، فروش اقساطی، اجاره به شرط تملیک، سلف، خرید دین، جعاله و استصناع) و عقود مشارکتی (مشارکت مدنی، مشارکت حقوقی، مضاربه، مزارعه و مساقات) بوده آیا بین ضریب تأثیر این دو گروه تفاوت معنادار آماری وجود داشته است؟ آیا مطابق انتظارات نظری تسهیلات مشارکتی که از ماهیت بلند مدت، تامین سرمایه و اثر مستقیم بر تولید و عرضه کالاها و خدمات برخوردارند، تاثیر بیشتری بر رشد ارزش افزوده در استان‌های مختلف در مقایسه با تسهیلات مبادله ای که از ماهیت کوتاه مدت، واسطه ای با امکان تعیین نرخ سود از قبل و اثر بر تقاضای کالاها و خدمات برخوردارند، داشته است؟  براساس اختلاف دو دیدگاه کینزی و کلاسیک، آیا مطابق دیدگاه  کلاسیک پول خنثی است و نمی تواند موجب رشد تولید شود بلکه صرفاً بر نرخ تورم اثر می گذارد و یا مطابق دیدگاه کینزی ابزار سیاستهای پولی و خلق و پرداخت اعتبارات بانکی در بازار پول می تواند از کانال مخارج سبب رشد تولید و ارزش افزوده گردد؟ برای پاسخ به این سوالات که همان فرضیه های تحقیق هستند از روش تخمین اقتصاد سنجی به شیوه پانل دیتا استفاده شده و یکایک آمارهای استانی شامل ارزش افزوده واقعی، سرمایه (سرمایه شرکتهای بورسی شده هر استان از سال 1390-1399) ، تعداد نیروی کار شاغل، مانده تسهیلات با عقود مشارکتی و مبادله ای گردآوری و در تخمین مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج تحقیق مهمترین عامل تأثیرگذار بر ارزش افزوده استانها متغیر Kt (حجم سرمایه انباشته شرکتهای بورسی) بوده است. برخلاف فرضیه تحقیق در مورد اثربخش تر بودن تسهیلات مشارکتی نسبت به مبادله ای، هیچ تفاوتی بین این دو گروه، نیست  مگر زمانی که تبدیل به متغیر سرمایه ( Kt ) شده و در صورتهای مالی شرکتها بعنوان عامل تولید مؤثر ظاهر شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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