نوع مقاله : کاربردی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور
3 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز،تبریز، ایران
چکیده
در تحقیقات اخیر، تأثیر عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی (EPU) بر جنبه‌های مختلف اقتصاد کلان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است، اما در زمینه انرژی، خصوصاً انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر مطالعات محدودی انجام شده است. در این مطالعه اثر EPU بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر (REC) در کشور‌های خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا(منا) طی دوره زمانی2020-2002 با استفاده از رویکرد پانل میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) انجام شده است. متغیر مورد استفاده در EPU با یک شاخص ترکیبی بدست آمده است که نااطمینانی در سیاستهای ارزی، پولی و مالی را با استفاده از الگوهای اقتصادسنجی ARCH و GARCH محاسبه می‌کند. نتایج تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی PMG نشان می‌دهد که EPU دارای تأثیر منفی و معنی دار بر REC است به طوری که در کوتاه مدت موجب کاهش 159/0 درصدی و در بلندمدت باعث کاهش 186/0 درصدی بر REC می‌گردد. براساس نتایج پژوهش، متغیرهای کنترلی سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، اعتبارات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی و ارزش بازاری بازار سرمایه در هر دو دوره زمانی، کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت موجب افزایش REC شده است. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل علیت گرنجری نیز نشان می‌دهد که رابطه علیت یک طرفه از EPU به REC وجود دارد.
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