بررسی تأثیر آستانه‌ای امنیت انرژی بر صنعتی شدن در ایران

نوع مقاله : کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام ، ایلام، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.

10.30473/jier.2026.76102.1520

چکیده

امنیت انرژی به توانایی یک کشور در تأمین پایدار، مطمئن و مقرون‌به‌صرفه انرژی برای اقتصاد و جامعه بدون مواجهه با اختلالات جدی اطلاق می‌شود. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه ایران در دوره ۱۳۶۳ تا ۱۴۰۱، شاخص امنیت انرژی بر اساس پنج مؤلفه شامل در دسترس بودن، مقبولیت، قابلیت توسعه، امکان تأمین و مقرون‌به‌صرفه بودن با روش Min-Max محاسبه شد و با به‌کارگیری روش خودرگرسیون آستانه‌ای، تأثیر امنیت انرژی بر صنعتی‌شدن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که دو رژیم متمایز امنیت انرژی (پایین‌تر و بالاتر از آستانه ۵۷/۵۱) برای اقتصاد ایران وجود دارد که اثرگذاری متغیرها بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت در هر رژیم از الگوهای متفاوتی پیروی می‌کند. به‌طور خاص، سرمایه ثابت، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تجارت در هر دو رژیم اثر مثبت و معناداری بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت دارند. همچنین، امنیت انرژی خود در هر دو رژیم تأثیر معناداری دارد؛ با این تفاوت که پس از عبور از آستانه، اثر آن از حالت محدودکننده به محرک رشد صنعتی تغییر می‌کند. این نتایج نشان می‌دهد که ارتقای امنیت انرژی نه‌تنها به‌طور مستقیم ارزش افزوده صنعتی را افزایش می‌دهد، بلکه از طریق تقویت کارایی سرمایه، سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، تجارت و بهره‌وری صنعتی نیز در پایداری رشد صنعتی نقش‌آفرینی می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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