نوع مقاله : کاربردی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 کارشناسی ارشد کارگروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
10.30473/jier.2023.67232.1376
چکیده
شیوع مصرف دخانیات در سطح خرد باعث تغییر ترکیب و سهم گروه‌های کالایی در سبد مصرفی خانوار شده و به تبع آن میزان تقاضا برای اقلام ضروری و ارزشمند کاهش می‌یابد. با عنایت به نرخ پایین مالیات بر دخانیات و بی‌تأثیر بودن آن در میزان مصرف طی سالهای گذشته، طبق لایحه مصوب بودجه، از ابتدای سال 1402برخلاف سنوات قبل، مالیات برای هر نخ سیگار در نظر گرفته می‌شود. از این‌رو در مطالعه حاضر با به‌کارگیری مدل سیستم تقاضای EASI و استخراج کشش‌های قیمتی و درآمدی، به بررسی تأثیر اجرای سیاست مذکور بر رفاه خانوار مناطق شهری ایران بر اساس اطلاعات سال 1399-1398 همراه با شبیه‌سازی این اطلاعات در سال1401و لحاظ برخی متغیرهای جمعیت‌شناختی در ابعاد فردی و اجتماعی پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، سیگار داخلی و خارجی از نظر قیمتی، اقلامی کم‌کشش هستند و استفاده از سیاستهای قیمتی(مانند مالیات) به لحاظ کاهش مصرف، اثر زیادی ندارند؛ از جانب دیگر، کشش درآمدی کمتر از یک، آن‌ها را را جزء کالاهای ضروری خانوار قرار داده و اجرای سیاست مذکور با افزایش هزینه مربوط به دخانیات، سبب کاهش رفاه خانوار به میزان 1،448،939 ریال می‌شود. همچنین متغیرهایی مانند حضور نوجوان در خانواده، تعداد بزرگسالان، جنسیت، تأهل، بیوه و مطلقه بودن سرپرست خانوار) تأثیر معنادار و مثبت بر تقاضای سیگار داخلی و خارجی و متغیرهای حضور کودک در خانواده، شاغل و درآمد ن سرپرست خانوار و سالهای تحصیل سرپرست خانوار و همسر وی تأثیر منفی بر تقاضای مصرف سیگار داخلی و خارجی داشته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
ابوالقاسم‌‌گرجی، حسن. محمدی، تیمور. حسینی، لیلا. قناتی، الناز. و آزادبخت، مهدی. (1388). ارتباط قیمت سیگار با میزان مصرف آن طی سالهای 1385-1363. مدیریت سلامت. 12(38)، 31-36.
حسنی، محسن. سحابی، بهرام. فرجی‌‌دیزجی، سجاد. عبدلی، قهرمان. (1396). بررسی اثر سیاستهای قیمتی (مالیاتی) بر مصرف دخانیات. پژوهشنامه مالیات. 84(36). 135-148.
سحابی، بهرام. حسنی، محسن. فرجی دیزجی، سجاد. (1397). عبدلی، قهرمان. بررسی اثر سیاستهای قیمتی (مالیاتی) بر مصرف دخانیات. پژوهشنامه مالیات. ۲۵ (۳۶) :135-148.
عبدی، محمدرضا. رحمانی، تیمور. فلاحی، سامان. (1391). مالیات بر ارزش افزوده و ثبات مالی. نشریه پژوهشنامه مالیات. پیاپی 62، تابستان 1391 شماره14. 30-9.
محمد‌‌نژاد، نیما. معصومی، محمدرضا. جوان نوقابی، جواد. (1397). تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر مصرف دخانیات در ایران. بررسی بودجه خانوار. مجله علوم‌‌پزشکی صدرا. 6(3). 215-226.
محمدی، تیمور. حسینی، لیلا. (1389). تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای سیگار در ایران در دوره 1363-1387.پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران. 15(44). 173-198.
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موسوی‌‌جهرمی, یگانه. (1378). بررسی اقتصادی مالیات بر مصرف در ایران. آینده‌‌پژوهی مدیریت11، شماره 1 (پیاپی 40 ). 97-112.
هوشمند، زهره. خدادادکاشی، فرهاد. خوشنویس، مریم. (1396). بررسی رفتار مصرفی خانوارهای شهری استان تهران. سیاست گذاری اقتصادی، شماره 18. 203-183.
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