The impact of migration on housing prices in Iran (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach)

Document Type : basic

Authors

1 اقتصاد،دانشکده اقتصادومدیریت ،دانشگاه آزاد واحد شیراز،شیراز،ایران

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz, Iran.

10.30473/jier.2025.72905.1477

Abstract

The housing sector is one of the driving sectors of the economy in developing countries. However, examining the trend of housing price fluctuations in the country over recent decades indicates that housing inflation is a deep-rooted issue in the Iranian economy. In such a way that in the current situation, the country's housing market is in a difficult situation in terms of the mismatch between prices and citizens' purchasing power, as well as the decline in the level of construction. The present study examines the impact of immigration on housing prices in Iran using seasonal data from 1991 to 2001 within the framework of a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. An impulse has been defined for immigration, which is explained as a first-order autoregressive process. This impulse enters the model through changes in human capital and, with changes in the structure of the population and human capital, is effective in creating fluctuations in economic variables, including housing prices. Based on the results of variance analysis, the migration shock explains more than 10% of housing price fluctuations, more than 20% of output fluctuations, and more than 14% of consumption fluctuations for the Iranian economy. Also, based on the results of the instantaneous response functions of the variables, in response to the migration shock, housing prices increase, while output, consumption, investment, capital formation in the housing sector, human capital, employment, wages, and capital stock decrease..

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Journal of Industrial Economics researches
Volume 8, Issue 29
September 2025
Pages 80-100

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History

  • Receive Date: 26 November 2024
  • Revise Date: 25 February 2025
  • Accept Date: 02 March 2025

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