Document Type : applicative
Authors
Faculty of Economic and management, Khorramshahr Marine Science and Technology University, Khorramshahr, Iran
Abstract
This research examines the impact of business cycles on the shipbuilding industry in Iran during 1992 to 2020. This industry is recognized as one of the key sectors in the document of general policies for marine development; however, evidence shows that its share in employment and the total value added of the country's industry is negligible. Evidence also indicates that the shipbuilding industry has the potential to create more employment compared to the industrial sector's average. In this study, using eight regression models with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the impact of variables such as capital volume, labor force, steel prices, ship prices, business cycles, and sanctions is examined. To assess the influencing power of the variable, seven proxies for business cycles were selected. The results indicate that this industry has increasing returns to scale and that steel prices are among the main determinants of production. Additionally, evidence of the lack of active connection of this industry with global markets and the negative impact of sanctions on it has been observed. Overall, the results point to the isolation and lack of competitiveness of Iran's shipbuilding industry on an international level.
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