Estimation and Forecasting Gasoline Demand in Transport Sector By PLSR Method

Tahsili, Hasan; Mehnatfar, Yusef; Gorjipour, Mohammad Javad

doi:10.30473/indeco.2020.38966.1100

Document Type : applicative

Authors

¹ Associate Professor of Economic ,Faculty of Administrative & Economics Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

² Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Administrative & Economics Sciences, Mazandaran University

³ Ph.D Student of Economic,Faculty of Administrative & Economics Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

https://doi.org/10.30473/indeco.2020.38966.1100

Abstract

Energy supply is one of the most important areas of economic and social development of each country and always has been raised as a key component of development planning. The demand for Gasoline in the transportation sector also reflects the needs of energy consumers for this system.Thus, Partial Least Squares Regression Technique (PLSR) is used to estimate and speculate Gasoline demand and also to study the degree of variable effects (Gasoline subsidies, gross domestic production(GDP), population as well as the rate of urbanization) in the transportation sector. The summarized findings suggest that GDP, population, the rate of urbanization and gasoline subsidies have a meaningful and direct effects on Gasoline demand in the transportation sector. From of all, the rate of urbanization has put the most effect while energy subsidies left the least one. The estimation of diesel demand in transportation sector and its anticipation in 2021 indicate that the rate of Gasoline demand is following an average growth degree of 5/2% annually.

Keywords

20.1001.1.24767077.1397.2.6.5.9

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فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصاد صنعتی

Estimation and Forecasting Gasoline Demand in Transport Sector By PLSR Method

References

References

Volume 2, Issue 6 - Serial Number 6
February 2019
Pages 89-105

Estimation and Forecasting Gasoline Demand in Transport Sector By PLSR Method

References

References

Volume 2, Issue 6 - Serial Number 6February 2019Pages 89-105

Volume 2, Issue 6 - Serial Number 6
February 2019
Pages 89-105